23 Dec What Ever Became of the Grey Tsunami?
For much of the last decade, the idea of a “Grey Tsunami” dominated coverage of small business ownership. As Baby Boomers, now about aged 62 to 80, retired en masse, we were told to expect an eye-watering handoff of wealth and assets to younger generations. Its effects would be felt across finance, real estate, and small business ownership. After all, Boomers own just over half of U.S. small businesses, according to Census data.
The implication was clear: a wave of sellers was coming. What actually is happening is more complicated.
The wealth transfer isn’t a mirage, but the tsunami narrative overstated both its speed and scale. Delayed retirement, unpredictable health care costs, and illiquid assets tied up in real estate or operating businesses have complicated the story. Today’s retirement-age owners are healthier and living longer, which has often diminished the urgency to exit.
That said, retirement remains the single biggest driver of businesses coming to market, according to the latest data from BizBuySell. Owners are stepping away. It’s just not happening all at once or on a predictable timeline.
The Rise of the Corporate Refugee
While the seller wave slowed, something else accelerated.
Millennials, now roughly 29 to 44, are further along than the original narrative assumed. Many are navigating career ceilings, layoffs, or diminished growth prospects in corporate roles. According to BizBuySell’s Q3 2025 Market Insight Report, this has translated into a growing cohort of “corporate refugees” actively looking to buy businesses. Millennials have become the most active buyer group in the Main Street and Lower Middle Market.
A Lopsided Market
The result is a market imbalance in which buyers now outnumber sellers.
That hasn’t fundamentally changed pricing mechanics, but it has shifted expectations. Strong businesses with consistent earnings and reasonable transferability often attract multiple offers. Buyers, in turn, are widening their criteria. They’re considering businesses with less polished fundamentals, heavier owner reliance, or outdated systems where they believe they can create immediate value.
In markets like New Mexico, this imbalance is especially visible. Many long-time owners remain deeply tied to their communities and are reluctant to exit unless the timing feels right. At the same time, lifestyle-driven buyers — some returning home, others leaving larger metros — are actively searching for established businesses that offer continuity and place, not just upside.
In other words, the Grey Tsunami didn’t crash ashore; it’s still unfolding.
Ownership is changing hands slowly, selectively, and under different conditions than originally predicted. The defining feature of today’s small business market isn’t a generational windfall. It’s a prolonged mismatch between when owners are ready to exit and when buyers are ready to step in. This tension is likely to persist.
Further Reading
If you’re interested in exploring this topic further, a few related pieces include How to Ensure a Smooth Business Sale and Transition into Retirement, Selling While Business Is Strong Pays Off, What It Really Means to Be Your Own Boss, and Low Hanging Fruit: Small Fixes, Big Payoffs.
